Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AF 0xafc5…3c26 weather 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%190W / 9L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$17
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 46 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 151 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 199 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.73 per $1 lost it wins $8.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses190 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage126d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 30 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? May 28 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 17? May 21 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $16 12h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $57 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $53 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $58 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $56 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $54 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 13d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $56 13d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.06 · official $98.06 (match) · 416 history records