Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xafca…92b4 sports 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,659 (-9%) realized −$2,659 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%135W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$113
14 days−$323
30 days−$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$570
crypto 30% −$2,682
other 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 43% -25.0%
≤30d 60 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 43% -21.0%
≤90d 275 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 48% -18.5%
all 275 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 48% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 48% -18.5%
10% -26.0% 47% -26.3%
15% -33.2% 44% -33.4%
20% -39.7% 39% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$102 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,659
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses135 / 140
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage64d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions (103 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$17 -28%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $61 +$57 +93%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $26 −$25 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $18 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$13 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $71 −$33 -46%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $71 −$67 -94%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $74 +$75 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$13 +46%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $100 +$116 +116%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $101 +$56 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $103 −$102 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 11 $218 −$13 -6%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $49 −$48 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $24 +$14 +59%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. May 28 $52 −$51 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears May 28 $27 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $87 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 28 $206 −$200 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5 May 28 $203 −$203 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 May 28 $291 −$287 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 May 28 $144 −$143 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) May 28 $360 +$190 +53%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 28 $203 +$157 +78%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 May 27 $162 −$160 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 May 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 27 $103 +$67 +65%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $203 +$229 +112%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 27 $356 +$210 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 27 $103 +$60 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 27 $203 +$189 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 May 27 $102 +$136 +134%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $199 +$83 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 61¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $118 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 51¢ $61 3h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 56¢ $26 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $35 2d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 51¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $38 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 31¢ $38 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 56¢ $71 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Under $4 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $149 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 42¢ $15 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Yes 56¢ $61 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 10d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Zsombor Piros 51¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $27 10d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 48¢ $71 10d
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Mark Lajal 60¢ $101 10d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 100¢ $215 10d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 46¢ $100 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 99¢ $157 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 496 history records