Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafce…c2f6 other 500 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,437 (-3%) realized −$8,412 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate46%226W / 269L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$158
14 days+$324
30 days+$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1,996
sports 26% −$721
world 16% −$1,828
politics 9% −$1,509
finance 6% −$1,062
crypto 2% −$1,811
economics 2% −$186
culture 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 25% -10.6%
≤30d 32 -26.3% -33.3% 38% 22% -8.0%
≤90d 181 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 24% -10.0%
all 495 -11.3% -19.7% 46% 27% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 27% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 17% -20.8%
15% -34.4% 12% -28.5%
20% -40.9% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$704) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$121 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$8,412
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses226 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions2
Markets (closed)495 / 500
History coverage244d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $62 −$42 -69%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,654 +$104 +6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $575 −$49 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,917 −$173 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $876 +$36 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $509 +$273 +54%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $164 −$28 -17%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $814 −$775 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $368 +$222 +60%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $493 −$138 -28%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,113 −$230 -21%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 +$16 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $247 −$156 -63%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $82 −$24 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,569 +$864 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,087 +$601 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 05 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $59 −$59 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 05 $168 −$168 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $520 −$184 -35%
BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF: Both Teams to Score May 31 $68 +$5 +7%
CR Flamengo leading at halftime? May 30 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Molde FK (-1.5) May 30 $92 +$94 +102%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $14,268 +$666 +5%
Spread: Viking FK (-2.5) May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $802 +$48 +6%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $3,652 −$460 -13%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$49 +48%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 24 $101 +$61 +61%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 24 $5,192 −$387 -8%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners May 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Roberto Fernandez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga s May 24 $1 −$1 -60%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) May 24 $203 −$203 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 0.5 May 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t May 24 $664 −$6 -1%
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $216 +$73 +34%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 23 $1,282 +$148 +12%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 18 $54 +$39 +73%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1,485 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 18 $1,400 +$137 +10%
Trabzonspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 2.5 May 17 $203 +$142 +70%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5 May 17 $101 +$70 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $682 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $526 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $672 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $912 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $740 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $574 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $47 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $86 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $76 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $136 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $509 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $507 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 41¢ $115 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $56 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $76 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $167 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $164 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $591 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 3048 history records