Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xafcf…9964 other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$29 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$53
14 days+$28
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$12
sports 7% −$10
crypto 3% +$12
world 1% −$3
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.5% -18.2% 52% 48% -0.4%
≤30d 63 -2.8% -12.0% 44% 41% -6.8%
≤90d 63 -2.8% -12.0% 44% 41% -6.8%
all 63 -2.8% -12.0% 44% 41% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 41% -6.8%
10% -20.5% 38% -15.7%
15% -28.1% 35% -23.8%
20% -35.2% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions25
Markets (closed)63 / 88
History coverage16d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+120%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+120%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $95 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$10 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +595%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $70 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $95 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 18h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 37h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.94 · official $252.96 (match) · 137 history records