Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xafcf…72f6 sports 1219 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$254 (+1%) realized +$270 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%839W / 375L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$64
14 days−$17
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$380
other 4% −$115
world 4% +$39
finance 3% −$111
weather 1% +$10
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 37% -10.3%
≤30d 163 -6.7% -15.6% 70% 39% -8.1%
≤90d 968 +1.2% -8.4% 73% 51% -8.2%
all 1214 +1.9% -7.8% 69% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 50% -8.5%
10% -16.6% 26% -17.3%
15% -24.7% 17% -25.3%
20% -32.0% 13% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$270
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses839 / 375
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1214 / 1219
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $34 $23 −$10 (-31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $86 +$14 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $46 +$4 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $8 +$12 +143%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $42 −$29 -68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$5 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $86 +$14 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $244 +$35 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$28 -57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $28 −$27 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $12 +$3 +23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $23 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $46 +$4 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $13 +$2 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $12 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $231 +$119 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $88 −$33 -38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -68%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$7 +233%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$9 +59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 +$4 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $14 +$1 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $40 +$9 +22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $248 +$52 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $88 −$38 -43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $132 +$18 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $238 +$12 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $46 +$4 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $86 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $46 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $42 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $6 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $11 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $14 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $138 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $7 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 42¢ $21 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 75¢ $19 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 71¢ $36 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 64¢ $32 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 24¢ $11 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 86¢ $86 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $21 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $7 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $19 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $8 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $4 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $8 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $8 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $12 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 94¢ $23 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.97 · official $49.00 (match) · 3442 history records