Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafd1…5d9c crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$24
14 days−$53
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$27
other 2% −$24
sports 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 63% -11.8%
≤30d 58 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 52% -14.7%
≤90d 58 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 52% -14.7%
all 58 -14.1% -22.3% 55% 52% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 52% -14.7%
10% -29.7% 41% -22.9%
15% -36.5% 38% -30.3%
20% -42.7% 28% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage24d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $60 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$27 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$29 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$3 -36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records