Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xafd6…763f other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$57 (+17%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 31L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$57
other 41% $0
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 33 +63.1% +47.6% 6% 6% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.6% 6% +5.2%
10% +33.5% 6% -4.9%
15% +20.6% 6% -14.1%
20% +8.7% 6% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +130% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$0 · ×3076.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×341.78 per $1 lost it wins $341.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage547d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Nov 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 20 $7 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jul 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Canucks Apr 17 $62 +$53 +85%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $1 +$4 +283%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 21d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 49d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 49d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 142d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 143d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 173d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 173d
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $5 201d
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $5 201d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 232d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 232d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 254d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 256d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 299d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 299d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 300d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 307d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 307d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? SELL No 99¢ $6 331d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 99¢ $6 331d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 337d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 337d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 337d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $5 338d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? BUY No 99¢ $5 338d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 94 history records