Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafdc…d278
crypto · 43 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$614 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$619 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$239
Realized−$619
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 43
History coverage2d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day1977.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$619
7 days−$619
14 days−$619
30 days−$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $123 $209 +$86 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Down 57¢ 50¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Up 33¢ 50¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$165 -13674%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $329 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $170 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $315 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $242 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $154 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $258 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $86 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $218 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $199 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $290 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $199 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $117 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $91 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $69 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $305 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -38.9% -44.8% 17% 1% -14.3%
≤30d 69 -38.9% -44.8% 17% 1% -14.3%
≤90d 69 -38.9% -44.8% 17% 1% -14.3%
all 69 -38.9% -44.8% 17% 1% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1977.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.8% 1% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -50.0% 1% -22.5%
15% -54.9% 1% -30.0%
20% -59.3% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.22 · official $239.22 (match) · 3500 history records