Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xafdf…2945 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$37 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%42W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$133
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$61
crypto 36% −$139
sports 11% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 40% -14.9%
≤30d 66 -0.6% -10.0% 56% 48% -13.3%
≤90d 75 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 47% -13.8%
all 75 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 47% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 47% -13.8%
10% -19.8% 39% -22.1%
15% -27.6% 33% -29.6%
20% -34.7% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses42 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage59d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 26¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $36 −$7 -20%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $60 −$10 -16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$33 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $69 +$6 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$14 -33%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $38 −$11 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $56 −$19 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $204 −$23 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $254 −$79 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $132 +$116 +88%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $121 −$83 -69%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 42m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $38 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.38 · official $63.38 (match) · 169 history records