Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafe0…acf3 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-14%) realized +$113 · open −$161
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$50
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$150
other 22% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.4% -36.1% 15% 15% -37.1%
≤30d 14 -27.6% -34.5% 14% 14% -35.9%
≤90d 14 -27.6% -34.5% 14% 14% -35.9%
all 14 -27.6% -34.5% 14% 14% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 14% -35.9%
10% -40.7% 14% -42.0%
15% -46.5% 14% -47.6%
20% -51.7% 14% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 68¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-90%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ $137 $1 −$136 (-99%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $36 −$3 -8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$23 +172%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$17 +206%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $139 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $16 1h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $16 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 72¢ $16 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $17 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $17 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $19 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $14 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $8 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $9 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.52 · official $2.52 (match) · 30 history records