Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AF 0xafe2…b686 world 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,019 (-70%) realized −$10,768 · open −$251
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$267
14 days+$209
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$10,638
economics 5% −$263
other 5% −$94
politics 3% −$79
tech 1% +$64
finance 1% −$71
sports 1% +$80
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +71.4% +55.0% 93% 93% +34.5%
≤30d 58 +6.7% -3.5% 64% 62% -4.9%
≤90d 75 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 56% -82.8%
all 77 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 55% -82.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 55% -82.8%
10% -22.4% 52% -84.4%
15% -29.9% 36% -85.9%
20% -36.8% 21% -87.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$366 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1,851
Realized−$10,768
Unrealized−$251
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions29
Markets (closed)77 / 106
History coverage111d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 69¢ 74¢ $287 $309 +$22 (+8%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 40¢ 46¢ $156 $176 +$20 (+13%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No 70¢ 65¢ $143 $134 −$9 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 86¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No 65¢ 60¢ $129 $119 −$10 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $70 $104 +$34 (+49%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 73¢ 76¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+4%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 65¢ 90¢ $56 $78 +$21 (+38%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 15¢ $366 $76 −$290 (-79%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 71¢ 68¢ $79 $75 −$4 (-5%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 61¢ 68¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 52¢ $58 $42 −$17 (-29%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%? No 54¢ 100¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+85%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 61¢ 99¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+62%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 66¢ 99¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? No 82¢ 80¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 76¢ 66¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 79¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $57 +$38 +67%
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conferenc Jun 17 $129 +$68 +52%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $33 +$19 +58%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$6 +45%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$111 +365%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $69 +$96 +138%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +45%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $37 +$18 +49%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $286 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $116 −$115 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $36 +$35 +98%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $21 +$41 +202%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $29 +$4 +14%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 06 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 6? Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $20 +$6 +33%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $20 +$15 +76%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? Jun 03 $21 +$15 +73%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $20 +$15 +77%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $20 +$7 +37%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$7 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $120 −$91 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $149 +$112 +75%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$12 +64%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$9 +45%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$6 +30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$5 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY No 70¢ $5 54m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 41¢ $50 56m
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $2 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $4 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $14 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Ventu BUY No 82¢ $15 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 76¢ $15 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $76 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $79 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $110 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $109 1h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY No 65¢ $132 1h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY No 70¢ $56 1h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY No 70¢ $60 1h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY No 67¢ $23 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 40¢ $106 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 15h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 51¢ $67 16h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL No 49¢ $101 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 18h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 73¢ $78 19h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY No 60¢ $23 19h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY No 60¢ $4 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $59 23h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY No 60¢ $30 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 78¢ $3 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 79¢ $5 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 75¢ $59 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 77¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,851.26 · official $1,851.13 (match) · 318 history records