Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafe3…1f2a
other · 1316 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$257 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$250 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses997 / 313
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1310 / 1316
History coverage36d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day89.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 6 History 1310 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days+$29
14 days−$17
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 98¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 89¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Ashlyn Krueger 80¢ 79¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $86 +$4 +5%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $12 −$2 -20%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$12 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $78 +$7 +9%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $56 +$3 +5%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $13 +$2 +14%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $24 +$2 +10%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $30 +$2 +7%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $48 +$3 +6%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Lukas Pokorny Jun 10 $36 +$3 +7%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $55 +$11 +19%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +24%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$21
sports 44% −$251
crypto 8% −$44
world 1% +$18
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 99¢ $50 51m
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 97¢ $10 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva SELL Alexander Shevchenko 100¢ $7 1h
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Alexander Shevchenko 91¢ $5 1h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato SELL Jesper de Jong 100¢ $40 1h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Jesper de Jong 99¢ $40 2h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 90¢ $20 2h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 91¢ $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $10 2h
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 89¢ $3 2h
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 97¢ $5 3h
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 91¢ $10 12h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nicolas Kicker 69¢ $10 12h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 94¢ $10 13h
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 80¢ $2 13h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 83¢ $5 13h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $3 13h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Alexander Shevchenko 57¢ $1 13h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 57¢ $2 14h
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Thailand 90¢ $15 14h
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 64¢ $3 15h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 82¢ $6 15h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $19 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $85 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 97¢ $18 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 17h
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 75¢ $4 22h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 95¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 35% -8.7%
≤30d 992 -5.5% -14.5% 74% 37% -11.0%
≤90d 1310 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 37% -11.7%
all 1310 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 37% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover89.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 37% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 12% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 4% -27.8%
20% -36.3% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.35 · official $36.35 (match) · 3500 history records