Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafe4…f3f7 sports 276 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60,951 (+11%) realized +$59,707 · open +$1,244
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%131W / 159L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$2,086per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$8,780est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$51,783
other 1% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -49.3% -54.1% 24% 24% -91.1%
≤30d 123 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 41% -31.6%
≤90d 290 +8.0% -2.3% 45% 45% -7.8%
all 290 +8.0% -2.3% 45% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 45% -7.8%
10% -11.6% 45% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -20.2% 44% -24.7%
20% -28.0% 42% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$3,025) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,597 vs −$2,068 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$9,471
Realized+$59,707
Unrealized+$1,244
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses131 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$8,780
Open positions2
Markets (closed)290 / 276
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$2,086
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 74¢ $3,979 $5,111 +$1,132 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $4,248 $4,360 +$112 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 19 $1,149 −$1,149 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Jun 19 $3,652 −$3,652 -100%
Wonju DB Promy vs. Daegu Pegasus Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 19 $1,331 −$1,331 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Jun 19 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 19 $4,820 −$4,820 -100%
Kings vs. Magic Jun 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Jun 19 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 19 $996 −$996 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 19 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Hawks Jun 19 $1,324 −$1,324 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Jun 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Jun 19 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Pacers vs. Kings Jun 19 $3,574 −$3,574 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 19 $2,489 −$2,489 -100%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $14 +$25 +179%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $3,850 −$3,785 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $407 +$253 +62%
Spread: Paris Basketball (-7.5) Jun 17 $68 +$32 +48%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $1,041 +$1,164 +112%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $827 +$254 +31%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $415 −$410 -99%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 14 $6 +$8 +140%
Spread: Gimnasia (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$86 +86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3,793 −$3,742 -99%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $119 −$117 -98%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $1,206 −$1,179 -98%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $472 +$1,022 +216%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $4,315 +$6,038 +140%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 12 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $926 −$926 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 11 $2,030 −$2,030 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $355 +$132 +37%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 10 $1,596 +$674 +42%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $139 −$137 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $2,999 −$2,935 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $3,360 +$3,640 +108%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 10 $3,080 +$3,920 +127%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 09 $1,045 −$1,030 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) Jun 09 $4,605 −$4,545 -99%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 09 $860 +$393 +46%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2,021 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2,008 1h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 36¢ $2 11h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 35¢ $12 11h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $18 24h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 39¢ $1,214 24h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 39¢ $2,410 24h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $61 24h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $61 24h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $3 25h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $7 25h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $1 26h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $1 26h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $3 26h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $4 26h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $19 26h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $4 27h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $3 27h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $2 27h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $36 27h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 38¢ $3 27h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 61¢ $0 36h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 61¢ $403 36h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 61¢ $4 36h
Spread: Paris Basketball (-7.5) BUY Monaco 67¢ $68 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4,359 44h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $3,109 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $3 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $1 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,471.08 · official $9,471.08 (match) · 3500 history records