Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AF 0xafe4…5000 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+7%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$9
sports 22% −$30
other 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 33% -26.7%
≤90d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 33% -26.7%
all 3 +1.2% -8.4% 67% 33% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 33% -26.7%
10% -17.2% 33% -33.8%
15% -25.2% 33% -40.2%
20% -32.5% 33% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage8d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $80 +$7 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $87 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $80 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.80 · official $24.80 (match) · 6 history records