Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafe5…a9e3
crypto · 382 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,643 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,643 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,643
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses156 / 709
Open positions0
Markets (closed)865 / 382
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day578.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 865 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,260
7 days−$5,643
14 days−$5,643
30 days−$5,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $165 $0 −$165 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$15 -159%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 865 -59.2% -63.1% 18% 7% -41.0%
≤30d 865 -59.2% -63.1% 18% 7% -41.0%
≤90d 865 -59.2% -63.1% 18% 7% -41.0%
all 865 -59.2% -63.1% 18% 7% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover578.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.1% 7% -41.0%
10% ← realistic here -66.6% 3% -46.6%
15% -69.8% 1% -51.8%
20% -72.8% 1% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records