Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafe5…aba1 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$23
politics 30% −$14
sports 9% −$12
tech 4% −$2
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 134 -4.0% -13.1% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage129d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $444 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $291 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $283 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $282 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $402 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $465 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $272 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $273 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $289 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $462 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $422 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $784 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $237 18d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $238 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $250 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $250 26d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 32d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 35d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $258 42d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $258 42d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $287 42d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $287 42d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 42d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 43d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 43d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 43d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $207 43d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $207 43d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 44d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 44d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 44d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $256 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $269 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $269 45d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $304 45d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $304 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 421 history records