Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafe6…8192
crypto · 148 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$153,732 -155%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152,960 · open −$914
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,433
Realized−$152,960
Unrealized−$914
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses45 / 388
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$864
Open positions10
Markets (closed)433 / 148
History coverage17d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day204.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 433 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141,460
7 days−$141,670
14 days−$165,886
30 days−$152,960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $460 $445 −$15 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $780 $390 −$390 (-50%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $378 $366 −$11 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $705 $287 −$418 (-59%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Ben Shelton 48¢ 50¢ $240 $250 +$10 (+4%)
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 46¢ 46¢ $230 $227 −$2 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $148 $166 +$18 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 39¢ 20¢ $192 $99 −$94 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $105 $97 −$7 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $532 $0 −$532 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Alexander Blockx 23¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 33¢ 0¢ $1,630 $0 −$1,630 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $292 $0 −$292 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 20? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Casper Ruud 28¢ 0¢ $570 $0 −$570 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1,399 $0 −$1,399 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 11¢ 0¢ $1,184 $0 −$1,184 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Rublev 39¢ 0¢ $390 $0 −$390 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 7? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 13 $196 −$196 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $340 −$340 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 13 $1,630 −$1,630 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 20? Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 13 $570 −$570 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 13 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 7? Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $607 −$607 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Jun 13 $1,392 −$813 -58%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 13 $264 −$264 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? Jun 13 $248 −$248 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? Jun 13 $3,123 −$3,123 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? Jun 13 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $689 −$689 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Jun 13 $550 −$550 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Jelena Ostapenko vs Alexandra Eala Jun 13 $1,654 −$1,654 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? Jun 13 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? Jun 13 $792 −$792 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 3? Jun 13 $36 +$5,982 +16515%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Jun 13 $1,036 −$1,036 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? Jun 13 $1,236 −$1,236 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 24? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 13 $893 −$893 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 13 $2,445 −$519 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? Jun 13 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi Jun 13 $285 −$285 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? Jun 13 $629 −$629 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? Jun 13 $855 −$855 -100%
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson Jun 13 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET Jun 13 $243 −$243 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? Jun 13 $431 −$431 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? Jun 13 $913 −$913 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? Jun 13 $229 −$229 -100%
Mexican Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Jun 13 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 2? Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Jun 13 $371 −$371 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Jun 13 $128 +$827 +644%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$38,132
sports 30% +$18,364
politics 5% +$5,097
world 2% +$521
other 0% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $56 44m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $48 44m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $5 54m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $2 54m
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $93 57m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $3 57m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $31 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $5 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $20 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $43 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $1 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $57 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $5 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $28 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $1 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $7 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $244 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $117 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $191 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $148 1h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $64 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 24¢ $46 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 39¢ $192 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $92 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 338 -69.7% -72.6% 8% 8% -82.7%
≤30d 433 -57.5% -61.5% 10% 10% -69.4%
≤90d 433 -57.5% -61.5% 10% 10% -69.4%
all 433 -57.5% -61.5% 10% 10% -69.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover204.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.5% 10% -69.4%
10% -65.2% 9% -72.3%
15% ← realistic here -68.6% 9% -75.0%
20% -71.7% 9% -77.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,433.14 · official $2,478.14 · 3500 history records