Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xafe8…76ab other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$398 (+12%) realized +$380 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +15.9% +4.9% 80% 80% +9.1%
≤30d 10 +15.9% +4.9% 80% 80% +9.1%
≤90d 10 +15.9% +4.9% 80% 80% +9.1%
all 10 +15.9% +4.9% 80% 80% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 80% +9.1%
10% -5.1% 60% -1.4%
15% -14.3% 60% -10.9%
20% -22.7% 40% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$200 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized+$380
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $470 $506 +$36 (+8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $300 $283 −$17 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$211 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $232 +$106 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $299 +$137 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $471 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $232 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $299 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.45 · official $788.45 (match) · 20 history records