Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafeb…5cd2 other 926 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-0%) realized −$75 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate70%644W / 279L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$59
14 days−$216
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$548
sports 18% +$120
world 1% +$39
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 55% -10.7%
≤30d 186 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 568 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 37% -10.6%
all 923 -3.3% -12.5% 70% 37% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 37% -10.5%
10% -20.9% 14% -19.1%
15% -28.5% 5% -26.9%
20% -35.5% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses644 / 279
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)923 / 926
History coverage123d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 923 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$47 -93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$22 -86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$12 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 +$30 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $171 +$22 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$17 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$10 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$9 +19%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$6 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 +$11 +22%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $34 −$16 -49%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 +$6 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 +$8 +15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$7 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $151 +$28 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$22 +43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$8 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $99 +$13 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$13 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 +$31 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$26 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$78 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 −$131 -86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$91 -90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$20 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 +$22 +61%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$12 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$24 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$15 +15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$35 -35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $156 +$6 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$40 -78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$6 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $50 −$49 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 29m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $3 29m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $51 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $51 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $101 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $51 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $51 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $101 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $51 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.85 · official $265.96 (match) · 2266 history records