Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafed…2e7e crypto 323 markets active 8h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,135 (+16%) realized +$1,117 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%189W / 132L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$45
14 days+$906
30 days+$906
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$928
politics 1% +$20
other 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 56% -11.0%
≤30d 321 -6.3% -15.3% 59% 51% +3.3%
≤90d 321 -6.3% -15.3% 59% 51% +3.3%
all 321 -6.3% -15.3% 59% 51% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 51% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 39% -6.6%
15% -30.8% 26% -15.6%
20% -37.6% 18% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$1,117
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses189 / 132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)321 / 323
History coverage12d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +44%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$11 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$22 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$12 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $21 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $119 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.06 · official $128.06 (match) · 701 history records