Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaff0…bffe
other · 242 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$82 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$82 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage131d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $321 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $492 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $418 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $814 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $337 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $579 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $689 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $307 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $296 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $77 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 29 $388 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $546 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $746 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 25 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $175 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$41
sports 27% −$28
politics 10% +$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
economics 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 4h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 5h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 8h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 10h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 18h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $68 19h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $68 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $68 25h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 32h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 35h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 38h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $69 40h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $69 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $69 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $69 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $69 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $69 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $69 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.56 · official $67.56 (match) · 1361 history records