Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaff1…7a23 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$82
sports 23% −$2
politics 20% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 42% 33% +1.7%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 42% 33% +1.7%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 42% 33% +1.7%
all 12 +0.4% -9.1% 42% 33% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 33% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 33% -8.0%
15% -25.8% 25% -16.9%
20% -33.1% 17% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$14 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$96 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $115 +$28 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $115 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $27 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $123 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.81 · official $29.81 (match) · 40 history records