Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff3…c3b2 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized +$485 · open −$538
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$3,180per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$254est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$2,705
other 9% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 67% +19.0%
≤30d 3 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 67% +19.0%
≤90d 3 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 67% +19.0%
all 3 +14.3% +3.4% 67% 67% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 67% +19.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 67% +7.6%
15% -15.5% 67% -2.8%
20% -23.8% 67% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,905 vs −$2,580 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8,143
Realized+$485
Unrealized−$538
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$254
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,180
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 56¢ 66¢ $3,481 $4,133 +$653 (+19%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 49¢ 32¢ $3,500 $2,321 −$1,179 (-34%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,700 $1,688 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,023 +$1,256 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $2,617 −$2,580 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5,644 +$4,555 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,715 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $1,520 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3,279 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $2,007 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 20¢ $287 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $1,015 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 23¢ $307 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $2,023 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2,023 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $2,538 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $10,199 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,601 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,029 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,142.54 · official $8,142.78 (match) · 14 history records