Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff5…1a65 politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$447 (+0%) realized +$444 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate27%32W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$808per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$20
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$63
other 32% +$1,451
sports 9% −$969
world 3% $0
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 55 +0.5% -9.1% 9% 2% -9.0%
all 117 +1.8% -7.9% 27% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 11% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 11% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 9% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,237) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$16 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$845
Realized+$444
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses32 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage140d
Avg bet$808
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $842 $845 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,320 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,028 −$5 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,243 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $130 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 04 $338 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,127 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,189 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,867 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 21 $983 +$1,303 +133%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,736 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,786 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,720 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $165 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $274 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $2,205 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $495 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,353 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $912 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $214 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,457 26h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,206 27h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $312 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $313 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $842 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,657 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,671 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,673 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,642 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,661 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,664 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,666 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,668 19d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,631 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,633 21d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,633 21d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,635 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $844.83 · official $844.83 (match) · 359 history records