Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaff6…d1fd sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,207 (+22%) realized +$5,266 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%46W / 21L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$549
7 days+$760
14 days+$760
30 days+$952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,851
other 21% −$382
politics 17% +$3,316
world 5% −$193
finance 4% +$211
tech 3% +$328
crypto 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +44.0% +30.3% 75% 75% +35.4%
≤30d 19 +12.8% +2.0% 68% 63% +6.6%
≤90d 40 +10.1% -0.4% 70% 65% +14.3%
all 67 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 63% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 63% +11.5%
10% -12.4% 54% +0.8%
15% -20.9% 36% -8.9%
20% -28.6% 24% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$220 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$5,266
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses46 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage188d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Barcelona vs. Valencia Valencia 49¢ 48¢ $510 $491 −$19 (-4%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 36¢ $76 $35 −$40 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $51 +$79 +155%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $480 +$480 +100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? Jun 22 $991 +$211 +21%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 05 $258 −$255 -99%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid Jun 04 $4 +$2 +39%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $269 −$264 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 03 $200 +$80 +40%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $92 −$92 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 01 $218 +$61 +28%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $87 +$229 +262%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Barcelona May 29 $525 +$174 +33%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May? May 29 $350 +$149 +43%
Esenler Erokspor vs. Fenerbahce May 29 $488 +$21 +4%
Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento May 26 $400 +$99 +25%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 26 $300 +$179 +60%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Pallacanestro Trieste May 25 $330 +$110 +33%
Basket Zaragoza vs. CB Murcia May 24 $1,190 +$508 +43%
Bilbao Basket vs. Real Madrid May 14 $469 −$469 -100%
Granada vs. Barcelona May 13 $52 +$13 +25%
Virtus Bologna vs. Pallacanestro Varese May 10 $49 +$12 +24%
Real Madrid vs. CB Breogan Lugo May 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 07 $1,004 +$894 +89%
Monaco vs. Olympiacos B.C. May 05 $980 +$419 +43%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 01 $1,014 +$839 +83%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $707 +$308 +44%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? Apr 28 $976 +$199 +20%
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 16 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Trump say "Inflation" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $704 −$704 -100%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 15 $453 +$27 +6%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $624 +$467 +75%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $1,167 +$833 +71%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $1,679 +$2,277 +136%
Basket Zaragoza vs. Barcelona Apr 06 $210 +$51 +24%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $209 +$124 +59%
Nothing Ever Happens: March Apr 02 $381 +$73 +19%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Mar 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Mar 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Mar 18 $524 −$308 -59%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Mar 18 $56 −$56 -100%
CB Breogan Lugo vs. Barcelona Mar 08 $216 +$75 +35%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 06 $222 +$7 +3%
Will Trump say "NATO" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 03 $357 +$62 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 47¢ $44 21m
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 47¢ $67 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 13¢ $10 15h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $76 22h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $5 22h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $6 22h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $6 22h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $78 22h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $50 22h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $51 23h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $51 23h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $66 24h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $1 25h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $10 25h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $8 26h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $1 26h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $3 26h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $8 27h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $1 27h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $2 28h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $2 28h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $3 28h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $3 28h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 39¢ $20 28h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 47¢ $8 45h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $159 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $72 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $66 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $66 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 50¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.72 · official $526.72 (match) · 314 history records