Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff6…b357 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,455 (-21%) realized −$1,436 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,826
other 19% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.9%
≤30d 65 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.9%
≤90d 65 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.9%
all 65 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 26% -33.9%
10% -43.3% 23% -40.3%
15% -48.8% 20% -46.0%
20% -53.8% 15% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$80 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,283
Realized−$1,436
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 48
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions21
Markets (closed)65 / 86
History coverage7d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 34¢ 35¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Sweden 72¢ 72¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 48¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 62¢ 62¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 69¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 16¢ 16¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $63 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $61 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Tunisia 71¢ 69¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Ecuador 80¢ 80¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $63 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Curaçao 37¢ 36¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 40¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-4%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 42¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 72¢ 69¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 20¢ $57 $53 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $77 +$39 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $79 +$120 +152%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $77 +$391 +510%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $157 −$33 -21%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 25 $154 −$60 -39%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $78 +$25 +32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $86 +$137 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $87 −$87 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $92 +$129 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $94 −$94 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $91 −$91 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $92 +$124 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $94 +$39 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $97 +$315 +325%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $92 +$13 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $91 +$17 +18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $94 +$29 +31%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $82 +$114 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $82 +$154 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $160 +$246 +154%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $81 +$382 +474%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $160 −$58 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $62 56m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 80¢ $63 59m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $65 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 62¢ $66 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $67 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $57 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $58 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 72¢ $58 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $59 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $63 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $63 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $65 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $64 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $65 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $62 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 37¢ $63 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $65 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $60 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $61 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 71¢ $65 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $67 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Sweden 72¢ $67 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 13h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 66¢ $77 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 39¢ $79 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $80 14h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $78 15h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $80 15h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 75¢ $79 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,283.06 · official $1,283.11 (match) · 159 history records