Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaff9…8e3c
crypto · 1177 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,223 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$604 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1109 / 64
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1173 / 1177
History coverage31d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 1173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$61
14 days−$227
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? No 79¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? No 48¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $211 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $291 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $146 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $195 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $145 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $175 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $167 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $39 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $57 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $272 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $156 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $165 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $256 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 04 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$42
weather 48% −$559
tech 1% +$1
other 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $13 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $22 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $6 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 4% -12.4%
≤30d 980 -2.0% -11.3% 93% 5% -13.1%
≤90d 1173 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 5% -12.6%
all 1173 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 5% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 5% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 1% -20.9%
15% -27.0% 1% -28.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.90 · official $94.90 (match) · 3500 history records