Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xaffb…9801 crypto 561 markets active 0h ago coverage 222d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 221d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,897 (-4%) realized −$9,892 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%353W / 207L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$5,751
sports 27% −$1,017
other 19% −$1,595
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% +$5
culture 0% −$49
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 43% -6.0%
≤30d 89 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 43% -6.0%
≤90d 89 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 43% -6.0%
all 560 -0.5% -9.9% 63% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 38% -13.0%
10% -18.6% 17% -21.3%
15% -26.4% 9% -28.9%
20% -33.6% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$140 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$9,892
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses353 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)560 / 561
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$394
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 89¢ 74¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$6 -60%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $10 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$7 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $110 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$7 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $30 +$17 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$6 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$25 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$7 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $314 +$26 +8%
Solana Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $131 +$10 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$4 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $212 −$26 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$25 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$2 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $15 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$14 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $21 −$13 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $111 +$11 +10%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$4 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $140 +$6 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$12 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 3m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 68¢ $10 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 21m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 70¢ $10 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 38m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson SELL Maria Timofeeva 100¢ $48 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $12 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $24 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.78 · official $24.44 (match) · 3500 history records