Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaffc…ce04 crypto 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,259 (-43%) realized −$3,257 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate36%83W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day57.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$400
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +17.7% +6.5% 47% 40% +17.3%
≤30d 16 +11.7% +1.1% 44% 38% +0.7%
≤90d 230 -25.2% -32.3% 36% 16% -14.3%
all 230 -25.2% -32.3% 36% 16% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 16% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 10% -22.5%
15% -44.7% 7% -30.0%
20% -50.1% 3% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3,257
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses83 / 147
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day57.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$88 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$82 +328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$75 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $76 −$60 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 14 $52 −$36 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 14 $121 −$44 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $91 +$48 +53%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 12 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 12 $17 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 12 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 12 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 12 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 12 $13 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 12 $11 +$6 +54%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 12 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 12 $52 −$17 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 12 $39 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 12 $56 −$16 -28%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 12 $116 +$6 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 12 $13 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 11 $67 +$33 +49%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 11 $9 +$27 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 11 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 11 $68 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $35 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.35 · official $3.35 (match) · 3500 history records