Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaffd…2c4a crypto 459 markets active 4d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (287 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,121 (-9%) realized −$2,121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate86%396W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day286.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days−$435
30 days−$1,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,089
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (287 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +5.2% -4.8% 96% 24% -5.0%
≤30d 458 -3.8% -13.0% 86% 13% -13.6%
≤90d 458 -3.8% -13.0% 86% 13% -13.6%
all 458 -3.8% -13.0% 86% 13% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 13% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 1% -21.9%
15% -28.9% 0% -29.4%
20% -35.9% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$46 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses396 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)458 / 459
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day286.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 458 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records