Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb003…d962 sports 993 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$424 (+0%) realized +$266 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%553W / 438L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1,045est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$161
14 days+$297
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$115
other 1% −$407
crypto 0% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -14.8% -22.9% 48% 48% -18.4%
≤30d 174 +8.1% -2.2% 62% 61% -3.1%
≤90d 790 -15.4% -23.4% 47% 45% -20.2%
all 991 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 53% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 53% -10.0%
10% -13.8% 48% -18.6%
15% -22.1% 41% -26.5%
20% -29.7% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$100 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses553 / 438
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1,045
Open positions2
Markets (closed)991 / 993
History coverage170d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 991 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 100¢ $170 $274 +$104 (+61%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $100 $154 +$54 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$33 +55%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$17 -28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$64 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$72 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$27 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$48 +79%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $65 −$65 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 +$22 +35%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $161 +$124 +77%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$35 +62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $49 +$71 +146%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$25 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$55 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $43 +$22 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $42 +$37 +90%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$20 +52%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $40 +$18 +46%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $37 +$12 +32%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $37 +$14 +38%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $19 +$5 +26%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $35 +$45 +129%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$31 +101%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $26 +$10 +40%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$33 +119%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$15 +55%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $23 −$22 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $25 +$18 +71%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $99 +$88 +90%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $24 +$11 +44%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $21 +$34 +158%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $172 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $74 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $44 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $69 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $61 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $61 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $56 5d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 77¢ $65 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $67 5d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 73¢ $64 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $102 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 58¢ $41 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 58¢ $51 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $52 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $59 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $60 6d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 61¢ $56 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.83 · official $427.83 (match) · 2165 history records