Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb009…ff41 weather 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+6%) realized +$13 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 22% -3.3%
≤30d 9 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 22% -3.3%
≤90d 9 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 22% -3.3%
all 9 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 22% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 22% -3.3%
10% -12.6% 0% -12.5%
15% -21.0% 0% -21.0%
20% -28.7% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? Jun 27 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.96 · official $64.96 (match) · 20 history records