Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb010…2930 world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$370 (+24%) realized +$514 · open −$241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$254
sports 10% +$52
other 6% −$26
crypto 3% −$4
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +52.8% +38.3% 33% 33% +29.7%
≤30d 26 +60.4% +45.1% 50% 50% +69.1%
≤90d 50 +38.2% +25.0% 48% 48% +45.3%
all 56 +34.3% +21.5% 50% 48% +35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 48% +35.2%
10% +9.8% 39% +22.2%
15% -0.8% 34% +10.4%
20% -10.5% 30% -0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$241
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions36
Markets (closed)56 / 92
History coverage107d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 50¢ 24¢ $70 $34 −$36 (-51%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+103%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 80¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 10¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-74%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 42¢ 20¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 32¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 48¢ 15¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 46¢ 27¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 39¢ 8¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-81%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 51¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 64¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$11 -37%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$52 +256%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 +$55 +183%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $130 +$325 +250%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? May 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $10 +$19 +186%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $10 +$17 +170%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $10 +$41 +413%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 +$34 +115%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? May 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 29 $10 −$4 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $10 +$14 +144%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$10 +104%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 22? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $10 +$52 +525%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $10 +$19 +194%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 21 $10 +$17 +170%
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? Apr 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 09 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 08 $10 +$3 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $30 +$43 +142%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $10 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $10 27h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.99 · official $256.07 (match) · 232 history records