Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb012…318c sports 35 markets active 20h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$265 (-4%) realized −$264 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$10
other 17% +$41
sports 6% −$299
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.9% +4.0% 14% 14% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +14.9% +4.0% 14% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 8 +24.1% +12.3% 25% 25% -8.3%
all 34 -15.1% -23.2% 26% 21% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 21% -13.7%
10% -30.5% 21% -22.0%
15% -37.2% 21% -29.5%
20% -43.4% 21% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$1,153
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage627d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,154 $1,153 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $981 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $14 +$12 +89%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Clemson vs. Louisville Nov 17 $14 +$16 +117%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 13 $13 +$8 +59%
Raptors vs. Hawks Nov 10 $9 +$11 +117%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Guardians vs. Tigers Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $4 +$6 +127%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jan 08 $123 −$123 -100%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $107 −$107 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Jan 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 20h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $479 20h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $533 20h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $534 45h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $480 45h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $436 46h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $61 46h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $490 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $437 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $536 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $543 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $537 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $544 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,083 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 2d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Knicks 48¢ $12 215d
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 53¢ $14 215d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Clippers 60¢ $15 218d
Clemson vs. Louisville BUY Clemson 46¢ $14 218d
Bulls vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $13 221d
Raptors vs. Hawks BUY Raptors 46¢ $9 224d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 50¢ $8 270d
Guardians vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 57¢ $10 277d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $4 278d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 361d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 396d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.42 · official $1,153.42 (match) · 79 history records