Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

B0 0xb013…6c47 sports 18 markets active 5h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,808 (+40%) realized +$5,804 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate73%11W / 4L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$814per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$146est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+34.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+48.4%	+34.3%	73%	73%	+31.3%
≤30d	15	+48.4%	+34.3%	73%	73%	+31.3%
≤90d	15	+48.4%	+34.3%	73%	73%	+31.3%
all	15	+48.4%	+34.3%	73%	73%	+31.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+34.3%	73%	+31.3%
10% ← realistic here	+21.4%	73%	+18.7%
15%	+9.7%	67%	+7.2%
20%	-1.1%	53%	-3.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +25% → late +69% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$714 vs −$543 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$489

Realized+$5,804

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses11 / 4

Est. fees paid−$146

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$814

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Under	62¢	62¢	$485	$489	+$4 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1,253	+$777	+62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$984	+$751	+76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$1,523	+$1,523	+100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$764	+$436	+57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$918	−$903	-98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$1,089	+$411	+38%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$337	+$663	+197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$625	+$775	+124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$924	+$970	+105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$254	−$250	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$215	−$20	-9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,361	+$539	+40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$1,010	−$1,000	-99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$359	+$762	+212%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,006	+$244	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden:	BUY	23¢	$495	5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	62¢	$491	7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	53¢	$1,044	7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$1,253	27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$984	37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3,046	37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	49¢	$1,523	38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$918	40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$764	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$1,089	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	33¢	$337	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,894	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	44¢	$625	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$3	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$44	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$13	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$25	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$10	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$1	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	21¢	$117	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	20¢	$195	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	21¢	$215	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	20¢	$41	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$924	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,361	3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$1,010	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	31¢	$359	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$1,006	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.91 · official $2,002.65 · 37 history records