Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

B0 0xb014…4969 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$135 (+11%) realized +$136 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%16W / 9L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day72.1pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)-8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+1.6%	-8.1%	64%	64%	+1.4%
≤30d	25	+1.6%	-8.1%	64%	64%	+1.4%
≤90d	25	+1.6%	-8.1%	64%	64%	+1.4%
all	25	+1.6%	-8.1%	64%	64%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover72.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.1%	64%	+1.4%
10% ← realistic here	-16.9%	60%	-8.3%
15%	-24.9%	36%	-17.1%
20%	-32.3%	28%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized+$136

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses16 / 9

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 27

History coverage1d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day72.1

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$41	−$31	-76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$280	+$53	+19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$2	-16%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$15	+$16	+103%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$25	+$18	+74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$51	+$28	+54%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo?	Jun 17	$15	+$4	+27%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$49	+$11	+23%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	−$9	-44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$91	+$60	+66%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$61	+$38	+63%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$30	+$30	+99%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan?	Jun 17	$18	+$6	+34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$71	−$70	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$56	+$22	+40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$51	+$11	+23%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria?	Jun 17	$20	+$8	+38%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$78	+$26	+33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$30	+$17	+55%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq?	Jun 16	$25	+$6	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	5m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	82¢	$80	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	82¢	$80	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	82¢	$80	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	82¢	$80	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	78¢	$55	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	77¢	$52	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	50¢	$51	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	15¢	$9	2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$31	2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5	BUY Over	48¢	$15	2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$10	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	79¢	$38	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$20	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$43	2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	55¢	$14	2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	55¢	$1	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	77¢	$29	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$22	2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	59¢	$10	3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$10	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	77¢	$30	4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	SELL Over	90¢	$58	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.66 · official $53.66 (match) · 75 history records