Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb015…8272 crypto 1063 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$569 (-12%) realized −$537 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%612W / 450L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$46
14 days−$89
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$403
sports 9% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -20.8% -28.4% 64% 33% -16.2%
≤30d 628 -11.9% -20.3% 61% 50% -18.9%
≤90d 1062 -9.8% -18.3% 58% 50% -19.4%
all 1062 -9.8% -18.3% 58% 50% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 50% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 30% -27.1%
15% -33.3% 22% -34.2%
20% -39.8% 17% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$537
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses612 / 450
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1062 / 1063
History coverage46d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1062 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 0¢ 48¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 44m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records