Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb01d…46f0 sports 1470 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,242 (+12%) realized +$10,723 · open −$1,481
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%639W / 775L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$655est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,810
other 6% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 +1.0% -8.6% 61% 37% -4.6%
≤30d 200 -0.9% -10.4% 60% 37% -4.9%
≤90d 1327 -8.0% -16.8% 42% 36% -13.9%
all 1414 -0.8% -10.2% 45% 38% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 38% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 38% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 38% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 37% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$37 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$3,021
Realized+$10,723
Unrealized−$1,481
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses639 / 775
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$655
Open positions56
Markets (closed)1414 / 1470
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 1414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 65¢ 66¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Matt Garbett: 2+ goals No 99¢ 90¢ $133 $121 −$12 (-9%)
Brooks Lee: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $201 $102 −$99 (-49%)
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $200 $101 −$98 (-49%)
Iván Herrera: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $190 $96 −$94 (-49%)
Max Muncy: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $186 $94 −$92 (-49%)
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ assists No 99¢ 96¢ $95 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Jared Triolo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $179 $90 −$89 (-49%)
Jase Bowen: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 99¢ 85¢ $99 $85 −$14 (-14%)
Samad Taylor: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 75¢ $104 $79 −$25 (-24%)
Joey Loperfido: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $155 $78 −$77 (-49%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Ben Shelton 66¢ 68¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $150 $76 −$73 (-49%)
Nathaniel Lowe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 75¢ $94 $71 −$23 (-24%)
Ezequiel Duran: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $137 $69 −$68 (-49%)
Corey Seager: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 50¢ $127 $65 −$61 (-48%)
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Dennis Eckert: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Ali Alipour: 3+ goals No 99¢ 97¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Mahdi Torabi: 3+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $64 $62 −$2 (-3%)
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 4+ shots No 99¢ 66¢ $89 $59 −$30 (-34%)
Matt Garbett: 4+ shots No 99¢ 66¢ $89 $59 −$30 (-34%)
Ben Waine: 4+ shots No 99¢ 66¢ $89 $59 −$30 (-34%)
Mahdi Torabi: 4+ shots No 99¢ 66¢ $89 $59 −$30 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alec Bohm: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $94 +$1 +1%
Bobby Witt Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Isaac Collins: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Salem Al Dawsari: 2+ assists Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Feras Al Brikan: 2+ assists Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Nuno Jóia: 3+ shots Jun 15 $104 +$2 +2%
Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots Jun 15 $127 +$2 +2%
Dani Olmo: 4+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Willy Semedo: 3+ shots Jun 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Marcos Llorente: 4+ shots Jun 15 $88 +$2 +2%
Alex Baena: 5+ shots Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Álex Grimaldo: 4+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Pedro Porro: 4+ shots Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Gilson Benchimol: 4+ shots Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $76 +$77 +101%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $354 +$202 +57%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Sebastian Tounekti: 5+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Ismaël Gharbi: 5+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Taha Abdi Ali: 4+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$140 +93%
Khalil Ayari: 5+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Besfort Zeneli: 4+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$97 -97%
Mickey Gasper: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Jonathan Aranda: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Taylor Walls: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $90 +$3 +3%
Logan O'Hoppe: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Chandler Simpson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Jose Siri: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Trey Mancini: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Yandy Díaz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $41 +$35 +86%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $254 +$267 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $132 −$74 -56%
Daniel Susac: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $177 +$2 +1%
Tyler Soderstrom: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $134 +$2 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots Jun 14 $156 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Max Muncy: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $186 16m
Jared Triolo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $179 18m
Chris Wood: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $99 29m
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 40m
Kosta Barbarouses: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 41m
Dennis Eckert: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 41m
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 43m
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 43m
Alex Bregman: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $16 54m
Braxton Fulford: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $55 59m
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Dennis Eckert: 4+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Dennis Eckert: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Mahdi Torabi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Ali Alipour: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Ben Waine: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Matt Garbett: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $133 1h
Ben Waine: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Ali Alipour: 4+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Mehdi Ghayedi: 3+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Mehdi Ghayedi: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Matt Garbett: 3+ shots BUY No 99¢ $77 1h
Mahdi Torabi: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Kosta Barbarouses: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Jesse Randall: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Ben Waine: 4+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Dennis Eckert: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,021.23 · official $3,021.28 (match) · 3500 history records