Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb01e…677f crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-19%) realized −$152 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%40W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$180
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -31.9% -38.4% 31% 29% -32.4%
≤30d 126 -29.3% -36.1% 32% 30% -30.8%
≤90d 126 -29.3% -36.1% 32% 30% -30.8%
all 126 -29.3% -36.1% 32% 30% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 30% -30.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 30% -37.4%
15% -47.8% 28% -43.4%
20% -52.9% 26% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses40 / 86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 34¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $4.19 (match) · 288 history records