Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B0 0xb020…92f3 sports 689 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,724 (-7%) realized −$5,533 · open −$191
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%271W / 386L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$928
7 days+$740
14 days+$765
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$2,058
other 25% −$2,802
world 2% −$422
politics 2% −$54
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$62
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 44% +0.6%
≤30d 126 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 44% -3.7%
≤90d 340 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 44% -11.5%
all 657 -12.3% -20.7% 41% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 39% -15.5%
10% -28.3% 36% -23.6%
15% -35.2% 31% -31.0%
20% -41.5% 25% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$84 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$5,533
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses271 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions15
Markets (closed)657 / 689
History coverage632d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $130 $65 −$65 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $64 +$10 (+19%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $123 $57 −$66 (-54%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $35 +$24 (+222%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 30¢ $39 $24 −$16 (-40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $23 −$17 (-42%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $12 −$4 (-26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 27¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $3 −$15 (-83%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $176 +$124 +70%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argenti Jun 23 $61 +$219 +356%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $209 +$231 +110%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $40 +$60 +152%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $149 +$101 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$49 +96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $148 +$122 +82%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 +$78 +153%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8 +$13 +165%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $12 +$9 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $193 −$193 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $100 +$90 +89%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$69 +135%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 Jun 21 $61 +$64 +106%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $98 +$112 +114%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $199 +$151 +76%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $145 −$145 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $249 −$249 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$53 +87%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $191 +$139 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $74 +$26 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $218 +$112 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $106 +$43 +41%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $68 +$112 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $107 +$92 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $176 +$123 +70%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $84 −$42 -50%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $156 −$113 -72%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06 BUY 46¢ $36 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $40 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 54¢ $61 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $21 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $18 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $100 7h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 42¢ $41 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $40 11h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argenti BUY 21¢ $61 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $149 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $51 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $46 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL $1 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $84 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $440 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY 39¢ $51 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 21¢ $51 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $61 30h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $10 31h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $12 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $12 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.37 · official $514.07 · 2615 history records