Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb025…eca8 crypto 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-9%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%53W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$41
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 37% -16.2%
≤30d 81 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 37% -16.2%
≤90d 127 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 38% -18.6%
all 127 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 38% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -18.6%
10% -29.4% 38% -26.4%
15% -36.2% 36% -33.5%
20% -42.5% 35% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses53 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records