Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb028…8686 culture 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy culture specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$41,148 (+11%) realized +$41,110 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%96W / 89L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,940per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,186
7 days+$1,186
14 days−$6,037
30 days−$6,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 97% +$38,676
other 3% −$9,251
sports 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.0% +25.7% 100% 67% +14.1%
≤30d 30 -30.6% -37.2% 43% 23% -18.9%
≤90d 133 -28.3% -35.1% 43% 32% -18.5%
all 185 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 42% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 42% -2.1%
10% -28.8% 30% -11.5%
15% ← realistic here -35.6% 23% -20.0%
20% -42.0% 16% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$2,810) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,053 vs −$806 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized+$41,110
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses96 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)185 / 187
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$1,940
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? No 71¢ 72¢ $582 $590 +$8 (+1%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $136 $165 +$29 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 18 $1,324 +$206 +16%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 18 $852 +$798 +94%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 18 $2,357 +$182 +8%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $746 −$584 -78%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 07 $2,117 −$2,043 -96%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 07 $3,637 −$2,502 -69%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 07 $277 −$265 -96%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 05 $2,195 −$141 -6%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 05 $81 −$77 -95%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 05 $412 −$412 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 05 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 02 $3,813 +$259 +7%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $2,620 −$1,078 -41%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $2,853 −$1,049 -37%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 31 $848 −$808 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 31 $124 +$119 +96%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $15,263 −$828 -5%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? May 30 $74 +$14 +19%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $7,107 +$452 +6%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? May 27 $944 +$70 +7%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 27 $814 +$296 +36%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 6m? May 27 $1,887 +$200 +11%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m? May 27 $3,492 +$336 +10%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $3,176 +$2,002 +63%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $4,902 +$408 +8%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 24 $258 −$253 -98%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $894 −$652 -73%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 12.5m? May 24 $122 −$119 -98%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $50 −$47 -94%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m? May 23 $166 −$166 -100%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? May 19 $202 +$46 +23%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 19 $2,390 +$2,560 +107%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 19 $6,119 +$822 +13%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 19 $7,412 +$750 +10%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m May 17 $102 −$89 -87%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 23m a May 16 $1,378 +$111 +8%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 12 $5,339 +$1,601 +30%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 12 $2,560 +$4,292 +168%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 12 $7,350 +$790 +11%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 11 $9,205 −$99 -1%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 11 $4,355 +$735 +17%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and May 10 $889 +$48 +5%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 10 $1,439 −$919 -64%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12 May 10 $917 +$511 +56%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 10 $32 −$6 -18%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 10 $981 +$34 +4%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 08 $105 −$31 -30%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? May 06 $44 +$15 +34%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? May 06 $246 +$91 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 71¢ $207 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 71¢ $355 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 71¢ $20 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 14¢ $136 1h
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 3¢ $46 11d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 11d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 9¢ $117 11d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL No 18¢ $758 11d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? SELL Yes 7¢ $56 11d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 11d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 34¢ $85 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 42¢ $119 12d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 46¢ $501 12d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 47¢ $339 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 46¢ $444 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 10¢ $111 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL No 47¢ $38 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL No 47¢ $225 12d
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of BUY Yes 35¢ $210 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL No 47¢ $52 12d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL No 47¢ $61 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 43¢ $114 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $755.87 · official $755.87 (match) · 3500 history records