Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb02b…7b98 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$81 (-23%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$2
sports 24% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -64.5% -67.9% 15% 15% -36.6%
≤30d 13 -64.5% -67.9% 15% 15% -36.6%
≤90d 13 -64.5% -67.9% 15% 15% -36.6%
all 13 -64.5% -67.9% 15% 15% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.9% 15% -36.6%
10% -71.0% 15% -42.6%
15% -73.8% 15% -48.2%
20% -76.3% 15% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$16 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$53 +104%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $43 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 10h
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 12h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 15h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 35h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.54 · official $56.54 (match) · 20 history records