Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb02c…c08f world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$9
other 23% −$8
finance 5% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +1.6% -8.0% 53% 12% -8.4%
≤90d 17 +1.6% -8.0% 53% 12% -8.4%
all 26 -6.2% -15.1% 62% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage465d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $54 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $9 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $49 +$7 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $54 −$6 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $53 +$7 +13%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $54 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $54 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $57 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $51 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $44 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $62 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $9 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $7 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $12 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records