Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb02d…109d crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$418 (-2%) realized −$415 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate53%44W / 39L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 23% −$41
crypto 22% +$7
other 21% −$956
sports 19% +$600
world 11% −$29
finance 2% −$3
economics 1% −$14
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 21 -9.1% -17.8% 29% 0% -12.3%
all 83 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 16% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 16% -11.8%
10% -20.9% 16% -20.2%
15% -28.5% 13% -27.9%
20% -35.5% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$58 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses44 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 89
History coverage606d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $254 $262 +$8 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 84¢ 79¢ $211 $197 −$14 (-7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $184 $187 +$3 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $90 −$6 -7%
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio Jun 24 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O Jun 24 $34 −$11 -34%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $152 −$2 -2%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $23 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 24 $149 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13? May 13 $2 $0 -25%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 13 $49 $0 -0%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $48 −$8 -16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 10 $186 −$1 -1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Apr 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $485 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 15 $110 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 14 $274 −$3 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 21 $170 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $144 +$256 +178%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Feb 13 $250 +$156 +62%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 26 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $156 −$18 -12%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 28 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 15 $100 $0 +0%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $165 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 25 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the House vote on a government funding bill today? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 17 $194 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 07 $194 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $252 −$31 -12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Nov 04 $195 +$105 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $84 1h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL Yes 54¢ $11 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $30 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL Yes 46¢ $22 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 76¢ $149 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $152 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 46¢ $23 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 46¢ $23 1h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 56¢ $11 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 2h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 67¢ $34 2h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL No 50¢ $10 2h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential SELL No 50¢ $0 2h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY No 48¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 39d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $46 39d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $149 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 42d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $26 42d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 42d
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 42d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.42 · official $993.42 (match) · 483 history records