Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:17:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb02f…40e5 crypto 403 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,113 (-27%) realized −$8,113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%197W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day145.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,033
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +0.3% -9.3% 53% 53% -9.6%
≤30d 403 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 49% -18.6%
≤90d 403 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 49% -18.6%
all 403 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 49% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 49% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 49% -26.4%
15% -30.9% 49% -33.5%
20% -37.7% 49% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$77 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$8,113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses197 / 206
Open positions1
Markets (closed)403 / 403
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day145.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$33 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$37 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$36 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$34 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$35 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$30 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$35 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$32 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $34 +$31 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$35 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$46 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$36 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$36 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$28 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$32 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$28 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$24 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$22 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$26 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$29 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $37 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $38 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $37 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $35 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.48 (match) · 3500 history records