Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb030…9afd crypto 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,477 (-6%) realized −$9,565 · open +$88
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate68%247W / 117L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$18
14 days+$4
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$3,377
world 8% −$5,318
sports 7% −$19
other 4% +$10
politics 1% +$78
economics 0% −$116
culture 0% +$12
tech 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 29% -15.8%
≤30d 15 +1.5% -8.1% 87% 47% +3.2%
≤90d 20 +2.4% -7.3% 85% 55% +5.4%
all 364 -6.1% -15.0% 68% 33% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 33% -14.6%
10% -23.1% 19% -22.7%
15% -30.6% 13% -30.2%
20% -37.4% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$222 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$9,565
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses247 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)364 / 368
History coverage581d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $160 $234 +$74 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $68 −$12 (-15%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 73¢ 72¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 +$5 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$5 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$9 +25%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $57 +$15 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $256 +$172 +67%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Camila Osorio May 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $236 +$47 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $197 +$39 +20%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $23 +$10 +43%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $114 +$49 +43%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $5,660 −$5,290 -94%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $562 −$207 -37%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $595 +$47 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $413 +$23 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $1,470 +$77 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $1,474 +$93 +6%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimo Feb 20 $370 −$370 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Janice Tjen vs Amanda Anisimova Feb 18 $230 +$13 +6%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 15 $498 +$64 +13%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $496 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $756 +$7 +1%
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Feb 12 $313 −$273 -87%
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina Feb 11 $737 +$34 +5%
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Janice Tjen Feb 10 $729 +$7 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $700 +$29 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $225 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $464 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $413 +$10 +2%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 31 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $42 −$42 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 05 $39 −$39 -100%
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Nov 05 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 04 $212 −$212 -100%
WTA Finals, Serena Williams Group: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina Nov 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November? Nov 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tour Nov 03 $91 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 73¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $26 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $24 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $37 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $52 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $50 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $49 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $44 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $11 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $32 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $34 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $33 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $26 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 22d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 66¢ $43 22d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 24d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $160 24d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 28d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 58¢ $28 28d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 57¢ $28 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $256 40d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Janice Tjen vs Camila Osorio BUY Janice Tjen 26¢ $27 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.32 · official $449.41 (match) · 1988 history records