Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb032…8566 sports 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate90%248W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$25
weather 23% +$14
other 11% +$5
crypto 9% −$2
world 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 80% 0% -18.7%
≤30d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 80% 0% -18.7%
≤90d 276 +1.1% -8.5% 90% 37% -10.4%
all 276 +1.1% -8.5% 90% 37% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 37% -10.4%
10% -17.3% 1% -19.0%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.8%
20% -32.6% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses248 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 276
History coverage80d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. Spain end in a draw? No 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 −$9 -37%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$12 -47%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum above 2,020 on March 30, 8PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum above 2,035 on March 30, 2PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,400 on March 30, 1PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above 67,800 on March 30, 8AM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum above 2,030 on March 30, 7PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on March 30, 5PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum above 2,080 on March 30, 9AM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Independiente Medellín (-2.5) Mar 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? Mar 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 29? Mar 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on March 30 Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 30 Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum above 2,030 on March 30, 5PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on March 30, 6PM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will CD Malacateco win on 2026-03-28? Mar 31 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 30 Mar 31 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum above 2,040 on March 30, 11AM ET? Mar 31 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +8%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +9%
Will Germany vs. Ghana end in a draw? Mar 31 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +10%
Bulls vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Mar 31 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: América de Cali (-1.5) Mar 31 $2 $0 +11%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: Cyprus (-2.5) Mar 31 $2 $0 +11%
Independiente Medellín vs. América de Cali: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 30? Mar 31 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Marc Mar 31 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 44m
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 1h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 98¢ $26 1h
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5) SELL CD Limache 61¢ $16 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 5h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 95¢ $25 5h
Spread: CD Concepción (-2.5) BUY CD Limache 95¢ $25 6h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 6h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 95¢ $25 22h
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $13 30h
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 30h
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 45h
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 46h
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 2d
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 22d
Will anyone be kicked out of Trump's National Agriculture Day event? SELL No 98¢ $2 75d
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $2 75d
Ethereum above 2,020 on March 30, 8PM ET? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 75d
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 75d
Bulls vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 90¢ $2 75d
Spread: América de Cali (-1.5) BUY Independiente Medellín 90¢ $2 75d
Independiente Medellín vs. América de Cali: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 75d
Spread: Independiente Medellín (-2.5) BUY América de Cali 95¢ $2 75d
Ethereum above 2,030 on March 30, 7PM ET? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin above 67,000 on March 30, 6PM ET? BUY No 94¢ $2 76d
Ethereum above 2,040 on March 30, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin above 66,800 on March 30, 5PM ET? BUY No 96¢ $2 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 557 history records