Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb033…4f0d other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$9
world 26% −$1
politics 23% +$1
crypto 12% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -10.5%
10% -21.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage431d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $11 $0 -3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $29 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $88 −$4 -5%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Lois Boisson win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $9 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 05 $85 +$3 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 23 $8 $0 -3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 21 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $28 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $13 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $18 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $31 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $28 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $29 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $32 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $29 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $29 32d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 358d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $46 364d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $38 364d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 365d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 365d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $10 379d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records