Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb033…84a2 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-13%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$33
other 8% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -14.8% -22.9% 48% 26% -27.7%
≤30d 27 -14.8% -22.9% 48% 26% -27.7%
≤90d 27 -14.8% -22.9% 48% 26% -27.7%
all 27 -14.8% -22.9% 48% 26% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 26% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 15% -34.6%
15% -37.1% 4% -40.9%
20% -43.2% 4% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 15m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.08 · official $15.09 (match) · 108 history records